The High Commission for Planning (HCP) has released its economic outlook for the first quarter of 2025, shedding light on the evolving trends in the industrial and construction sectors. While the end of 2024 saw mixed results across various industries, projections for the months ahead suggest relative stability—though challenges remain.
Manufacturing output saw growth in the final quarter of 2024, driven primarily by the automotive industry, metallurgy, non-metallic mineral production, and the food sector. However, declines were noted in electrical equipment manufacturing and the textile industry. Despite the overall positive trend, 39% of businesses reported supply chain difficulties, particularly concerning imported raw materials.
Looking ahead to early 2025, moderate growth is anticipated in manufacturing, with increased activity expected in the food industry, apparel, and metallurgy. On the other hand, a slowdown is projected in the automotive sector as well as in leather and footwear production. Employment levels, however, are expected to remain steady.
In the extractive sector, output dipped at the end of 2024, largely due to a drop in phosphate extraction. However, companies predict a rebound in activity during the first quarter of 2025, signaling a potential recovery.
The energy sector, which experienced an uptick in production towards the end of 2024—thanks to strong performances in electricity, gas, and steam distribution—faces a more uncertain outlook for 2025. A decline in both production and workforce levels is expected in the coming months.
Meanwhile, the construction industry showed solid growth in the final quarter of last year, bolstered by an increase in building projects, civil engineering, and specialized construction work. Yet, supply chain constraints continued to pose challenges, with 13% of companies reporting difficulties in obtaining raw materials. Additionally, 35% of firms faced financial strain.
Expectations for early 2025 remain positive, particularly in building construction and specialized works, though a dip in civil engineering activity is anticipated.
Throughout 2024, many businesses focused on upgrading equipment and expanding operations—an investment trend that is expected to continue in 2025, especially in manufacturing and construction, where modernization is key to maintaining competitiveness.
While forecasts point to moderate growth across industry and construction, companies must navigate supply chain disruptions, financial pressures, and sector-specific disparities. The road to recovery remains uncertain, requiring strategic adjustments to sustain momentum.
