Attijari Global Research (AGR) has issued an upbeat forecast for Attijariwafa Bank (AWB), projecting a notable rise in its share price over the coming months. The financial group anticipates that AWB’s profits will exceed the substantial threshold of 10 billion dirhams by 2025. This optimistic outlook stems from the bank’s strong financial results, which AGR detailed in its recent “Research Report – Equity” bulletin.
Attijariwafa’s net banking income (PNB) has surged by 16.6%, while the group share of net income (RNPG) has soared by 35.7%. These numbers reflect the bank’s best performance in a decade, bolstered by robust market activities, which account for almost two-thirds of this growth. For the third consecutive year, Attijariwafa’s financial results have outpaced AGR analysts’ expectations, prompting a reassessment of the bank’s growth projections for the 2024-2026 period.
A key driver of AWB’s performance is the growing adoption of digital banking platforms by its clients, which has significantly improved operational efficiency. Over the past five years, the bank’s operating ratio (COEX) has dropped by more than 10 percentage points, reaching 35.5% in the first half of 2024. This shift underscores the bank’s success in harnessing digital tools to streamline operations and reduce costs.
Risk indicators for the bank have also improved following a major provisioning effort in 2023 to support its subsidiaries in Egypt and Cameroon. This trend aligns with the stabilization of the macroeconomic environment in its key markets, where the cost of risk (CDR) has decreased by 12 basis points to 103 basis points.
AGR’s optimistic projections rest on three favorable trends expected to bolster the banking sector in Morocco. First, there’s a widening “spread” between credit growth and GDP growth, which signals positive momentum in lending. Second, more companies are turning to currency hedging strategies to mitigate foreign exchange risk. Third, Morocco’s monetary policy remains accommodative, providing a supportive backdrop for the industry’s expansion.
Notably, Attijariwafa Bank’s market capitalization is currently only 18% higher than its average from 2017 to 2019, despite expectations that the RNPG could nearly double by 2025. This combination of strong fundamentals, strategic digital investment, and favorable economic conditions paints a promising picture for AWB’s future, with further stock price increases likely on the horizon.
