National economic growth is projected to rise to 4.6% in 2025, according to a budget execution and macroeconomic framework report accompanying the 2025 Finance Bill.
This increase is largely attributed to a significant rebound in agricultural value-added, assuming an average agricultural season. Non-agricultural sectors are expected to continue growing at a similar pace to 2024, the report from the Ministry of Economy and Finance explains.
The secondary and tertiary sectors are also set to strengthen their performance, with growth rates of 2.9% and 4.1% respectively in 2025.
The report bases these predictions on a range of assumptions regarding both national and international conditions. Internationally, Morocco’s foreign demand is expected to grow by 3.2%, the average price of Brent crude is projected to be $80 per barrel, and exchange rates are predicted at 1.085 for Euro/Dollar, 10.77 for Euro/Dirham, and 9.8 for Dollar/Dirham in 2025.
Domestically, an anticipated agricultural yield of 70 million quintals should lead to a strong recovery in the sector, with agricultural value-added growing by 11%. Non-agricultural sectors are forecast to expand at a steady rate, with growth predicted at 3.7%.
Export growth is expected to decelerate slightly, reaching 7.1% in 2025, while imports are set to rise by 6.8%. Despite the robust export growth, the impact of imports is forecast to reduce the overall contribution of external trade to GDP growth, resulting in a negative contribution of -0.8 percentage points.
Domestic demand will play a crucial role, especially through household consumption, which is anticipated to contribute 2.8 percentage points to growth. Public sector consumption is expected to add 1.1 percentage points, and gross fixed capital formation (investment in capital assets) is projected to contribute 0.8 percentage points.
While exports are set to be a major driver of economic activity, the negative effect of rising imports will limit the overall impact of trade on GDP. The bulk of growth will come from domestic consumption, led by household spending and government expenditure, with investments also playing a supporting role.
