BMCE Capital Global Research (BKGR) has reaffirmed its recommendation to hold shares of Itissalat Al-Maghrib (IAM), setting a target price of 109.9 dirhams. This represents a potential upside of 5.7% from its closing price on February 18, 2025.
BKGR’s valuation is based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method, as outlined in its latest “Flash – Company Update” report.
As of the end of 2024, Maroc Telecom reported stable consolidated revenues, with a slight year-over-year decline of 0.2%, reaching 36.7 billion dirhams. This figure aligns precisely with BKGR’s annual forecast. The stagnation is largely due to a 2% drop in domestic operations, though this was partially offset by the strong performance of its Moov Africa subsidiaries. These subsidiaries now account for nearly half of the group’s total revenue, having recorded a 1.8% increase to 18.7 billion dirhams. Growth in the African segment was driven by a surge in mobile data services (+15.6% at constant exchange rates), fixed internet (+21.1%), and mobile money services (+14.4%). Excluding the impact of lower call termination rates, Moov Africa’s revenues rose by 5.2% at constant exchange rates.
On the commercial front, the group’s total mobile customer base expanded by 7.9% to 56.4 million subscribers. This growth was primarily fueled by strong gains in Niger (+19.7%), Côte d’Ivoire (+16.4%), Chad (+12.1%), Mauritania (+11.8%), and Togo (+9.5%), which collectively offset a slight decline in Mali (-1.4%). Meanwhile, fixed-line services also saw positive momentum, with a 4.1% increase in subscribers to 407,000 and a remarkable 49.3% jump in fixed broadband customers to 303,000.
Operationally, adjusted EBITA declined by 0.4% to 12.18 billion dirhams, maintaining a stable margin of 33.2%. However, reported EBITA plummeted by 48.3% to 6.06 billion dirhams, mainly due to a 6.04 billion dirham payment related to the settlement of its legal dispute with Wana Corporate.
Given the resilience of Maroc Telecom’s African operations and the overall stabilization of its financial performance, BKGR remains cautious but maintains a positive outlook on IAM shares. The firm highlights the stock’s moderate growth potential, backed by the group’s strong international footprint and solid fundamentals.
