The Moroccan dirham has been steadily gaining ground against the US dollar, continuing a trend that accelerated in June when the local currency strengthened by 2.37% against the greenback, according to the latest analysis from BMCE Capital Global Research.
This upward momentum for the dirham is being driven by two main factors: broader global market trends that have weighed on the dollar and an adjustment in the currency basket used to set the dirham’s reference value. The market effect, reflecting shifts in international sentiment, accounted for a negative impact of approximately -0.34%, while changes in the currency basket contributed an even larger negative pull of around -1.59%.
The dollar’s recent weakness comes amid a more optimistic global financial environment. Investors are regaining confidence, partly thanks to easing trade tensions between the United States and China, as well as encouraging signs from the European economy. The euro’s recent strength has further added pressure on the US currency, helping to push the dirham higher.
Looking ahead, BMCE Capital expects this favorable trend for the dirham to continue. Should the euro-to-dollar exchange rate rise to 1.16, alongside widening liquidity spreads, the euro is forecast to trade at approximately 10.61 dirhams, with the dollar slipping to around 10.15 dirhams over the next three months.
If the euro strengthens further to 1.17 within the next six months and liquidity pressures increase, BMCE Capital projects that the euro could climb to 10.75 dirhams, while the dollar could fall to 9.2 dirhams.
