Morocco is expected to remain the top buyer of French wheat during the 2025–2026 season, as France’s grain export sector shows strong signs of recovery after a challenging previous year. French grain terminal operator Senalia is projecting a sharp increase in its outbound volumes, thanks to a rebound in domestic production and steady international demand, particularly for barley.
Following a 2024 season hampered by poor weather and sluggish port activity, Senalia now forecasts that it will ship around 3.8 million metric tons of grain between July and June—more than double the 1.8 million tons handled the year before. The export pace is already picking up, with 1.7 million tons loaded in the first half of the season alone.
Barley demand, especially for animal feed, is playing a significant role in boosting shipments. A notable cargo is expected to head to Iraq soon, adding to existing deliveries bound for the Middle East and North Africa. These markets have helped cushion the blow from a sharp drop in Chinese demand since last summer.
Despite mounting competition from Argentina, Morocco remains at the center of France’s grain export efforts. Senalia reports that early indications on the quality of the upcoming South American harvest suggest French wheat still holds an edge—particularly for milling purposes—making it more appealing to buyers like Morocco.
Over the full season, wheat is projected to make up around 60% of Senalia’s total grain shipments, with barley accounting for the remaining 40%. However, traders are navigating a more difficult global environment for wheat. Diplomatic tensions continue to block French access to the Algerian market, and Chinese purchases have yet to resume.
