Morocco’s economic growth is projected to slow to 2.6% in 2024, down from 3.4% in 2023, according to the latest forecasts from Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM). However, growth is expected to accelerate to 3.9% over the following two years, signaling a gradual recovery.
Bank Al-Maghrib’s report, released after its final quarterly meeting of 2024, highlights a near-stable performance for the non-agricultural sector. Growth in this sector is expected to remain around 3.5% in 2024 before rising to 3.6% in 2025 and 3.9% in 2026.
Conversely, the agricultural sector faces challenges stemming from unfavorable weather conditions during the previous crop year. As a result, the sector is projected to decline by 4.6% in 2024. Nonetheless, assuming average cereal production of 50 million quintals, equivalent to the five-year average, the sector is expected to rebound with growth of 5.7% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026.
Inflation in Morocco has been on a steady decline since the second quarter of 2023. After averaging 6.1% in 2023, inflation is expected to fall sharply to 1% in 2024. Looking ahead, it is forecasted to stabilize at 2.4% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026.
Bank Al-Maghrib also noted a significant decline in core inflation, which reflects the underlying price trend. Core inflation is expected to drop from 5.6% in 2023 to 2.1% in 2024, and further to 2% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026.
The central bank emphasized that inflation expectations remain well-anchored, with recent surveys among financial sector experts predicting average rates of 2.3% over 8 quarters and 2.4% over 12 quarters.
Despite short-term challenges, particularly in agriculture, Morocco’s economic prospects appear promising, with improved growth anticipated in the medium term. This outlook reflects the resilience of the non-agricultural sectors and the anticipated recovery in agriculture, contingent on average climatic conditions and stable cereal production.
