On December 23, the Committee for the Coordination and Oversight of Systemic Risks (CCSRS) convened in Rabat at the headquarters of Bank Al-Maghrib to assess the health of Morocco’s financial system and approve a new strategic roadmap. This forward-looking plan is built around five key priorities: strengthening the legal framework, expanding analytical tools, enhancing macroprudential instruments, improving crisis management, and increasing communication around financial stability.
During its 22nd session, the Committee reviewed an updated risk map and the latest economic trends. Global uncertainty continues to weigh on the outlook, driven by a projected economic slowdown in 2026 and persistent geopolitical tensions. Despite this challenging backdrop, Morocco’s economy is on a stable path. Growth is expected to reach 5% in 2025, up from 3.8% in 2024, and to settle at an average of 4.5% between 2026 and 2027—largely fueled by strong investment momentum. Inflation has remained low, averaging 0.8% over the first eleven months of 2025, though it’s forecast to rise modestly to 1.3% in 2026 and 1.9% by 2027.
Externally, Morocco’s current account deficit is expected to stay under control, hovering around 1.8% of GDP, while foreign currency reserves are set to grow, covering about five and a half months of imports. Public finances continue to improve, with the budget deficit forecast to shrink from 3.8% of GDP in 2024 to 3% by 2028. Treasury debt is also on a downward trend, expected to fall from 67.7% to 64% of GDP over the same period.
On the monetary front, banks are likely to face increased liquidity demands, though this isn’t expected to hinder credit flows to the real economy. Lending to the non-financial sector is projected to grow by 4.1% in 2025, with an average growth of 5% forecast for the following two years. Non-performing loans remain elevated at 8.7% as of September, though the provisioning rate has inched up to 69%.
Morocco’s banking sector remains resilient, supported by strong fundamentals. As of the end of June, net profits were up 25%, driven by robust market operations and core banking activities. Solvency ratios remain healthy across both individual and consolidated levels, and Bank Al-Maghrib’s stress tests have confirmed the system’s ability to absorb potential shocks.
The insurance sector continues to expand, with premiums reaching 53.6 billion dirhams by the end of October, marking an 8.1% increase. Investment portfolios grew by 5%, and unrealized capital gains soared by over 70%, thanks to strong stock market performance and falling interest rates. The sector maintains a solvency position well above regulatory thresholds.
Casablanca’s stock exchange is experiencing a strong rally. As of December 22, the MASI index was up 28.2% year-to-date, with market capitalization hitting 1.039 trillion dirhams—a 38% increase. Market liquidity is improving, and volatility has eased slightly in the second half of the year.
The bond market, while generally on a downward trajectory in 2025, saw yields begin to climb toward year-end. Treasury bond issuance stood at 154.6 billion dirhams as of late November, while private-sector debt reached 296.7 billion, a 6.7% rise.
Collective investment schemes are also seeing substantial growth. UCITS funds reached 803.7 billion dirhams in net assets by early December, boosted by strong inflows and market performance. Other vehicles such as REITs, closed-end funds, and securitization funds also posted marked increases in assets under management.
Lastly, the Committee acknowledged progress in preparing for the upcoming mutual evaluation of Morocco’s anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing framework, scheduled for November 2026. A high-level meeting held in Rabat in late November, attended by GAFIMOAN officials, reaffirmed the country’s commitment to a rigorous and coordinated evaluation process.
