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Morocco and South Africa set to dominate Africa’s car market under new trade rules

New rules for car production under the AfCFTA started in mid-February 2026. Morocco and South Africa are set to gain the most.
New rules for car production under the AfCFTA started in mid-February 2026. Morocco and South Africa are set to gain the most.

New rules for car production under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) started in mid-February 2026.

They aim to strengthen local car manufacturing and trade across Africa. The rules say that cars and parts need at least 40% African content to get trade benefits, while up to 60% can come from outside Africa. These percentages could change after five years.

Morocco and South Africa are set to gain the most. In 2025, Morocco made 47.2% of all cars in Africa, South Africa 43.7%. Other countries could join in by building partnerships and sharing technology.

The rules are designed to turn Africa from just a market for cars into a place that makes them. For example, a factory in Tangier could use leather from Ethiopia, rubber from Côte d’Ivoire, and wiring from Egypt. This creates jobs across the continent, not just at the assembly plants.

Fitch Solutions predicts car sales in Africa will grow 5% in 2026 to nearly 2 million, and continue rising at around 5.7% a year, reaching 3.4 million by 2035.

But there are challenges. Red tape could make it hard for small businesses to join in. Open borders increase the risk of false claims or re-exports. Weak buying power, difficulty getting loans, and the popularity of cheap used cars could slow growth. Powerful used-car import lobbies are still trying to keep their advantage, slowing local manufacturing even as supply chains improve.

Morocco has spent 20 years building a nearshoring hub, with over 250 suppliers and strong links to Europe. It can now focus on African markets. South Africa has a more established industry, making right-hand drive vehicles with a strong local parts network, easily meeting the 40% requirement.

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