Ukraine’s grain exporters say they could lose key markets in North Africa, including Morocco, after shipping through the Black Sea corridor stopped because of growing security risks.
The industry wants the government to officially suspend the corridor so companies can claim force majeure and avoid penalties for failing to deliver grain.
The disruption followed Russian attacks that pushed several shipping companies to halt operations. Shipowners are refusing to send vessels to Ukrainian ports, leaving exporters unable to meet their contracts.
The biggest problem affects grain sold under CIF (Cost, Insurance and Freight) contracts. Under these terms, exporters must arrange the ship, insurance and delivery to the buyer’s port. Without an official government declaration that the corridor is no longer operating, buyers can still demand that contracts are fulfilled.
“We are required to charter ships and deliver grain to overseas ports, but we physically cannot do it. Buyers ask for explanations, but media reports of shelling are not a legal defence. We need an official state document confirming the maritime corridor is not operating,” a representative of a Ukrainian grain trading company told Latifundist.media.
The industry says the risk goes beyond delayed shipments. Repeated delivery failures could lead to contract defaults, financial penalties and Ukrainian companies being blacklisted by major international buyers. That could push importers in North Africa to buy more grain from Russia, the European Union or South America instead.
Mykola Gorbachov, president of the Ukrainian Grain Association, said shipowners are no longer willing to enter Ukrainian ports.
“Shipowners refuse to enter Ukrainian ports because of daily shelling. Most vessels already near the area have turned back, while new shipowners are not even considering trips to Ukraine.”
Freight rates for ships heading to Ukraine have also risen sharply. Charter costs are now two to three times higher than they were two weeks ago. Even so, crews still refuse to sail.
“An official declaration of navigation risks would allow companies to invoke force majeure because of the war and legally explain why contracts cannot be fulfilled,” Gorbachov said.
He said buyers continue to demand deliveries because a small number of ships are still reaching Ukrainian ports.
“They do not care that vessel numbers have collapsed. They say navigation technically continues. We need official confirmation from the state that deliveries are technically impossible.”
Ukraine has already sent a formal request to the government asking for an official declaration.
Acting Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi said ship arrivals at Ukrainian ports stopped after the latest Russian strikes.
“We are working with the private sector on targeted solutions. We will use every available tool to keep the situation under control until port exports resume.”
Vysotskyi said the situation is different from the Black Sea blockade in 2022 because Ukraine now has alternative export routes and stronger defences.
Danube River ports, including Izmail and Reni, together with rail and road crossings on the western border, can move about 2.5 million metric tonnes of agricultural products each month. However, these routes cost much more than shipping through Black Sea ports.
Ukraine estimates that 10 million to 12 million metric tonnes of grain could be delayed. The government is also looking for temporary storage to protect those supplies.
The crisis also has a legal impact. Most international grain contracts follow Grain and Feed Trade Association (GAFTA) rules, which require official government documents to prove force majeure. News reports of attacks are not enough. Without formal confirmation from Kyiv, exporters remain legally responsible for deliveries and could face lawsuits, financial losses and exclusion from future international tenders.
