Morocco’s wheat market is becoming an increasingly competitive battleground, as France faces growing pressure from a new challenger: Argentina. While French wheat exports to the North African country remain strong, early shipments from South America are beginning to shake up the outlook.
According to new figures released Wednesday by FranceAgriMer, France’s soft wheat export forecasts outside the European Union for the 2025/26 season have been slightly downgraded—from 7.60 million to 7.50 million tonnes. Despite the revision, this is still significantly higher than last year’s total, indicating continued strength in international demand.
Morocco remains one of the most important destinations for French wheat, but that dominance is now at risk. Argentina is on track for a record harvest and is emerging as a serious competitor in what has long been a strategic export market for French grain producers.
With global wheat supply on the rise, Moroccan importers are under less pressure to commit early and are expected to be more selective with their purchases. This means tighter pricing decisions and fiercer competition. So far, France has maintained its edge due to reliable delivery and geographic proximity, but Argentina’s increasingly attractive pricing could tip the balance.
Meanwhile, FranceAgriMer has kept its outlook steady for wheat shipments within Europe, with expected increases to countries like Germany, Spain, Ireland, and the Netherlands. Domestic stockpiles are also projected to rise, with year-end reserves now estimated at 2.80 million tonnes—up 12.7% from last year. This increase points to a still-solid supply situation within France itself.
