The High Commission for Planning (HCP) has unveiled its latest quarterly survey on business performance and outlooks, offering a detailed snapshot of Morocco’s economic landscape in the third quarter of 2024 and expectations for the year’s final stretch. The report reveals a mix of resilience and hurdles, particularly in non-financial market services and wholesale trade, painting a picture of complexity and contrasts.
Non-financial market services: Solid gains with some weak spots
In Q3 2024, a remarkable 72% of business leaders in non-financial market services reported robust performance. Key drivers of this growth included sectors such as telecommunications, hospitality, air transport, and logistics services. These industries have benefited from the resurgence of international mobility and surging demand for digital services, reinforcing their pivotal roles in Morocco’s economic recovery.
However, the picture isn’t uniformly rosy. Declines were noted in advertising, market research, postal services, and courier activities—industries grappling with shifting consumer habits and accelerated digital transformation.
The capacity utilization rate (CUR) remained steady at 77%, reflecting efficient use of available infrastructure. Employment trends were a mixed bag: 44% of businesses expanded their workforce, signaling renewed optimism, but 18% reported job cuts. Meanwhile, order books generally remained healthy, with 61% of companies describing them as “normal” and 26% as “above normal.”
Wholesale trade: Stability amid sectoral tensions
The wholesale trade sector, a key barometer of domestic consumption, displayed significant stability in Q3 2024. According to 70% of wholesalers, local sales remained unchanged, with 21% reporting increases. Gains were particularly pronounced in industrial equipment and household goods, while agricultural products and livestock saw declines due to supply chain challenges and volatile market conditions.
Stock levels were normal for 88% of businesses, and selling prices remained steady for 87% of respondents. Employment in the sector reflected this resilience, with 75% of companies maintaining stable staffing levels.
Looking ahead: A cautious yet optimistic outlook for Q4 2024
As the year approaches its conclusion, Moroccan business leaders strike a balance between optimism and caution. In non-financial market services, nearly half (48%) anticipate growth in overall activity, particularly in ground transportation, engineering, and technical control services. However, declines are expected in air transport and rental services, highlighting lingering economic volatility.
Demand forecasts remain conservative, with 58% predicting stagnation. Employment expectations are similarly reserved, with 66% projecting workforce stability.
The wholesale trade sector offers a relatively steady outlook. While 69% of wholesalers expect unchanged sales volumes, a hopeful 25% foresee increases, especially in industrial and communication equipment. Most anticipate normal order levels (79%) and stable employment (84%), reinforcing the sector’s resilience amid ongoing uncertainties.
