The Moroccan economy is charting a path toward recovery, with promising signs of stability and growth. According to the latest data from the High Commission for Planning (HCP), the national GDP grew by 3% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024. This follows a robust 4.3% growth in the third quarter. The slight slowdown reflects an anticipated adjustment as secondary and tertiary sectors adopt more stable growth patterns in response to subdued global demand.
The third quarter of 2024 highlighted impressive economic momentum, with growth fueled by a 5.1% surge in non-agricultural activities. This rebound was largely driven by robust domestic and international demand, including a notable 9.8% rise in national exports. Extractive industries led the charge with an increase of 15.9%, closely followed by chemicals, which grew by 18.2%. Electronics, automotive, and textiles also recorded strong performances, with growth rates of 16.1%, 16%, and 5.3%, respectively.
Service industries contributed significantly to this economic resurgence, registering a 3.8% growth rate. Household consumption increased by 3.9%, while investment rose by an impressive 13.5%. These factors contributed to a modest rise in the employment rate to 37.6%, although the unemployment rate remained stubbornly high at over 13%.
Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2025, Morocco’s economy is expected to grow by 3.5%. This projection is contingent on favorable winter rainfall and the absence of external inflationary pressures. Non-agricultural activities are anticipated to grow at a similar rate, supported by a 5.4% increase in domestic demand. Household consumption is projected to rise by 3.4%, driven by enhanced purchasing power resulting from socio-fiscal measures and controlled inflation. Although investment activity may be less dynamic than in the previous quarter, it is likely to remain strong, particularly in public infrastructure and strategic projects such as seawater desalination.
Inflationary pressures are expected to ease further, with consumer prices increasing by just 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from 1.3% in the previous quarter. This decline is attributed to lower prices for fresh produce and energy raw materials. However, underlying inflation, which excludes volatile and subsidized items, is expected to remain moderate at 2.5%. Financial conditions are also improving, with the money supply expanding by 7.1% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024. This monetary growth is likely to support economic activity despite increased liquidity demands from banks.
Morocco’s economy is showing resilience in the face of global challenges, marking a transition toward more sustainable growth. The government’s continued efforts to modernize infrastructure, diversify key sectors, and maintain controlled inflation have positioned the country for a stable and opportunity-filled start to 2025.
