Attijari Global Research has shifted its outlook on Cosumar, upgrading its recommendation from “hold” to “buy” in its latest equity research note. The firm has set a new price target of 253 dirhams, suggesting an 18% upside over the next 12 months from its position as of March 26, 2025.
This renewed optimism is backed by a series of positive developments, both operational and financial. At the heart of the turnaround is Cosumar’s new factory in Sidi Bennour, which has been fully operational since September 2024. The facility marks a major milestone for the company, pushing its total production capacity to an unprecedented 2.5 million tonnes and unlocking fresh export opportunities.
Cosumar is now on track to set a new record in 2025, with white sugar exports projected to surpass 800 kilotonnes. Looking further ahead, the group has set its sights on reaching 1 million tonnes by 2028, a target that would place it among the top global sugar refiners.
AGR’s analysis also highlights improved profitability as a key factor in the upgraded recommendation. As domestic sugar crop cultivation ramps up, it’s expected to make a meaningful contribution to revenues. At the same time, the recovery in international refining margins is reinforcing the company’s growth prospects.
Between 2024 and 2028, AGR forecasts strong average annual growth rates—8.2% for EBITDA and 9.2% for net income attributable to the group. A notable drop in the company’s discount rate, from 11.7% in June 2023 to 8% in March 2025, is further boosting the stock’s appeal. This decline reflects both an improved risk profile and reduced yield expectations in bond markets.
Weather conditions are also playing in Cosumar’s favor. With dam reservoir levels now above 37%, the upcoming 2024–2025 farming season is expected to benefit from expanded cultivation areas. Local production could reach around 300 kilotonnes in 2025, well above the 208 KT average over the past two years.
With a stronger industrial base, growing export competitiveness, and a more supportive environment, Cosumar appears to be regaining momentum. Attijari Global Research is clearly confident in its potential.
