Inflation, as measured by the HCP consumer price index, nearly halved in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the first quarter, settling at +0.7% down from +1.2%. This decline was primarily due to a 0.5% drop in food prices, while non-food prices accelerated to 1.5% from 0.9% in the previous quarter. Core inflation, which excludes state-regulated and volatile prices, also decreased, dropping from +2.5% to +2.2% due to lower prices for food and manufactured goods.

Key factors behind the decline

The main driver of the overall inflation reduction was the drop in fresh food prices, contributing -0.8 points compared to -0.5 points in the previous quarter. This decrease was attributed to lower prices for fresh vegetables and citrus fruits, following significant increases in the same quarter of 2023. Prices for eggs, poultry, and table oil also fell. However, some food items, such as fruits, red meat, and spices, saw price increases due to drought and higher production costs.

Non-food price dynamics

Non-food prices saw an uptick after several quarters of decline, mainly due to a 4.2% rise in energy inflation, linked to adjustments in gas and fuel prices. Manufactured goods prices continued to decrease slightly, while service prices remained stable. For the third quarter of 2024, overall inflation is expected to remain nearly stable at around +0.8%, with core inflation at +2.1%, supported by reduced inflationary pressures in the food and non-energy goods sectors.