Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) has forecasted a robust increase in production and sales across most industrial sectors over the next three months. This optimistic outlook, however, excludes the textile and leather industries, where a production decline and stagnant sales are anticipated, as revealed in BAM’s May 2024 monthly industrial survey.
Conducted from June 3 to June 28, 2024, the survey highlights a noticeable improvement in industrial activity compared to the previous month. Production has surged across various sectors, with the Capacity Utilization Rate (CUR) stabilizing around 78%.
Sales have similarly risen in both domestic and international markets, though the textile and leather sectors experienced a downturn.
Regarding orders, all branches saw an uptick except for the agri-food sector, which reported a decrease. Order books generally remained at normal levels, with above-normal figures in chemicals, parachemicals, and electronics, while mechanics, metallurgy, agri-food, and textiles and leather fell below average.
Sector-specific insights
Agri-food sector
In May 2024, the agri-food sector saw an increase in production, with a CUR of 70%. Sales improved mainly in the local market, though exports declined. Orders dropped, and order books were below normal levels. Over the next three months, businesses expect production and sales to rise, despite 31% of firms expressing uncertainty about future production and 28% about sales.
Textile and leather sectors
Production increased across most branches except for apparel and furs, which stagnated, resulting in a CUR of 79%. Sales decreased, particularly in apparel and furs, while the leather and footwear industries saw growth and the textile industry remained stagnant. Domestic market sales increased, but foreign market sales dropped. Orders rose in all branches except textiles. For the next quarter, a decrease in production and stagnant sales are anticipated, with over a third of businesses uncertain about future sales.
Chemicals and parachemicals
This sector enjoyed growth in May 2024, with a CUR of 76%. Both local and international sales increased, along with a rise in orders, and order books were above normal levels. For the upcoming quarter, companies predict a continued rise in production and sales.
Mechanics and metallurgy
Production in this sector also improved, boasting a CUR of 88%. Sales increased locally and internationally, except in the automotive industry, which saw a decline. Orders rose, though order books were below normal levels. The forecast for the next three months includes increased production and sales.
Electrical and electronics
The electrical and electronics sector experienced a production boost in May 2024, with a CUR of 85%. Sales grew across all branches, particularly in the local market, though international sales declined. Orders increased, with order books above normal levels. Looking ahead, businesses expect a rise in production and sales, though 25% lack visibility on future production and 28% on future sales.
