Here are the key insights from “Weekly Hebdo Taux – Fixed Income” by Attijari Global Research (AGR) covering july 12-18:
Money market:
- Stable interbank rates: The interbank rates have remained steady around the policy rate of 2.75%, thanks to the proactive measures taken by Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM).
- Consistent MONIA rates: The Moroccan Overnight Index Average (MONIA) continues to hover around 2.70%.
- BAM’s weekly advances: BAM provided 58.6 billion dirhams (MMDH) in 7-day advances, an increase from the 52.4 MMDH granted the previous week.
- Stable guaranteed loans: BAM maintained 84.4 MMDH in guaranteed loans and repurchase agreements, a stable level since the end of April 2024.
- Rising foreign exchange reserves: Foreign exchange reserves have hit historic highs, reaching 370.7 MMDH by the end of May 2024, marking a 4.9% increase over the past year.
Bond market:
- Treasury fundraising: The cumulative amount raised by the Treasury reached 16.8 MMDH by the penultimate auction session of July. This amount exceeds the Treasury’s announced monthly need of 12.3 MMDH by 4.5 MMDH.
- Treasury subscriptions: In this session, the Treasury subscribed 2 MMDH in the medium and short-term segment, against a demand of nearly 8 MMDH. The satisfaction rate for the session stands at 26%.
- Declining primary rates: The primary rates for the maturities involved in the auction dropped by an average of 5 basis points (bps), reaching their lowest levels since the end of 2022.
- Stable yield curve: The remainder of the primary yield curve remained stable compared to the previous week.
- Analysts’ outlook: AGR analysts maintain their outlook, dismissing any significant pressure on primary rates for the third quarter of 2024 (Q3-2024).
