Morocco’s economic outlook for 2025 is shaping up to be promising, with growth projected at 3.9%, according to the latest figures. While this is slightly below earlier expectations from BMCE Capital Global Research, it still marks an improvement over 2024’s pace. A combination of fiscal consolidation, controlled inflation, and deep structural reforms continues to provide momentum.
Inflation ticked up modestly year-over-year in April, reaching 0.7%, but prices actually dropped 0.3% from the previous month thanks largely to a dip in food costs. Other short-term indicators suggest that the economy is gaining traction. Cement sales jumped by 9.5%, car registrations soared 36.6%, and tourism arrivals surged 23%—all clear signs of renewed activity across key sectors.
The stock market has also kept up its recovery. The MASI index rose by 3.37% in May, closing at 17,976 points, buoyed by strong first-quarter earnings. Since the beginning of the year, the index has posted a cumulative gain approaching 22%. Among the standout performers last month were TAQA, Sothema, and TGCC, while Salafin, Sanlam, and IBM lagged behind.
One of the most significant developments came with the announcement of a massive new investment program. TAQA Morocco, Nareva, the national electricity and water authority (ONEE), and the Mohammed VI Fund have entered into a strategic partnership valued at 130 billion dirhams. The deal lays the groundwork for an ambitious series of water and energy infrastructure projects, all set to be developed by 2030.
Internationally, inflationary pressure in the eurozone appears to be easing. In China, however, economic signals are more concerning, with underwhelming PMI results reflecting weaker export demand. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve has left interest rates unchanged, and former President Donald Trump has called for a 90-day pause in trade disputes with key global partners.
Back home, bond yields are continuing to decline, thanks in large part to cautious Treasury management. In May alone, the Moroccan Treasury raised 3.9 billion dirhams, with most of the demand still focused on short- and medium-term maturities.
Finally, BMCE Capital’s model portfolio is having an exceptional year, with a 28.5% return that handily outpaces its benchmark, the MASI RB, which stands at 22.4%. Leading the charge are industrial and construction stocks, particularly names like SID, TGCC, and Managem.
