On Tuesday, December 24, 2024, the Coordination and Systemic Risk Monitoring Committee (CCSRS) held its 20th session at the headquarters of Bank Al-Maghrib in Rabat. This pivotal meeting reviewed Morocco’s financial stability roadmap for 2022–2024, analyzed the systemic risk landscape, and examined macroeconomic trends alongside the state of the financial system.
The global economy continues to grapple with geopolitical tensions and uncertainty. While global growth shows signs of slowing, Morocco’s economy remains steady, displaying mixed but promising trends. After achieving 3.4% growth in 2023, the economy is forecasted to slow to 2.6% in 2024 before rebounding to 3.9% in the following two years. Inflation, a key concern worldwide, is easing significantly in Morocco—from 6.1% in 2023 to just 1% in 2024—highlighting the effectiveness of monetary policies. Projections for 2025 and 2026 suggest inflation will stabilize at 2.4% and 1.8%, respectively.
Morocco’s external accounts paint a picture of stability, with the current account deficit remaining below 2% of GDP. Foreign exchange reserves are on track to reach MAD 400.2 billion by the end of 2026, equivalent to more than five months of imports. Budgetary consolidation efforts are bearing fruit, with the fiscal deficit narrowing from 4.2% in 2025 to an anticipated 3.9% in 2026. Treasury debt is also on a downward trajectory, set to decline from 70.5% of GDP in 2024 to 68.7% in 2026.
Morocco’s banking sector continues to strengthen, with credit to the non-financial sector expected to grow by 5.5% in 2026, supported by an economic rebound. However, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remains a concern, climbing to 8.8% as of October 2024. Despite this, banks maintain a robust provision coverage ratio of 68.8%. The sector also posted a 17.3% increase in net profits during the first half of 2024, supported by strong solvency ratios and successful stress tests.
The insurance sector also shows robust growth, with premiums reaching MAD 49.6 billion by October 2024, a 4.5% year-on-year increase. Both life and non-life branches are thriving, supported by stronger solvency margins and rising stock market valuations.
The Casablanca Stock Exchange’s MASI index surged by 22% in 2024, buoyed by higher corporate earnings. This growth reflects a revitalized interest in capital markets, with increased trading volumes and greater participation from retail investors. While equity valuations remain below their five-year averages, the market’s upward trajectory signals renewed investor confidence. Meanwhile, the bond market sees divergent trends, with a decline in Treasury bond issuance but a rise in private debt offerings, reflecting banks’ financing needs.
The CCSRS lauded Morocco’s continued progress in combating money laundering and terrorist financing. Following its removal from the FATF’s grey list, Morocco is preparing for the next round of mutual evaluations in 2026. These advancements underscore the nation’s dedication to strengthening financial transparency and security.
The meeting reaffirmed the resilience of Morocco’s financial system, while outlining challenges to safeguard stability amid global economic changes. With a solid economic foundation and effective policies in place, the country is well-positioned to support its developmental ambitions and weather external shocks.
