The election of Mahamoud Ali Youssouf as President of the African Union (AU) Commission marks a significant step forward for Morocco in its strategy to expand its influence. This victory highlights Rabat’s growing diplomatic clout, demonstrating that it now possesses a solid network. In short, it is an undeniable tactical triumph for Morocco.
Youssouf, who has served as Djibouti’s Minister of Foreign Affairs since 2005, secured the AU Commission presidency against Kenyan candidate Raila Odinga, who was backed by Algeria and South Africa. His election pitted two distinct blocs against each other: on one side, Morocco and its allies; on the other, Algeria and South Africa, which threw their support behind Odinga. This division reflects a broader struggle for influence within the AU, and Youssouf’s victory represents a stinging defeat for the Algerian-Kenyan alliance.
Since rejoining the African Union in 2017, Morocco has steadily strengthened its strategic partnerships, particularly with countries in West and East Africa, including Djibouti. The outcome of this election underscores Rabat’s ability to mobilize a strong diplomatic network to counter Algeria and South Africa, both of which continue to push—unsuccessfully—for the recognition of the Polisario Front within the AU.
Youssouf’s election carries special significance for Morocco, which actively worked behind the scenes to secure his victory. While this diplomatic win could open new doors for Rabat, it does not necessarily signal a drastic shift in how the AU handles sensitive issues, particularly the Moroccan Sahara dispute. The AU operates on a consensus-based model, where diplomatic balances between member states dictate decision-making. As a result, Youssouf will have to navigate these political complexities while maintaining an approach that accommodates the diverse interests of AU nations.
Beyond the Moroccan Sahara issue, however, having a close ally at the helm of the AU Commission could provide Morocco with greater leverage to advance its continental initiatives. Key areas such as investment, energy, and infrastructure development could benefit from a more favorable diplomatic environment. Morocco, which strongly supports projects like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and regional economic integration, may now find it easier to promote its economic ambitions within the AU framework.
On a more direct level, Youssouf’s election opens new avenues for enhanced cooperation between Morocco and Djibouti, particularly in trade and logistics. Strategically located at the crossroads of Africa and the Middle East, Djibouti could become a key partner for Morocco in expanding its commercial footprint in East Africa. As Morocco continues to position itself as a major player in African economic and political affairs, this latest diplomatic success may prove to be a stepping stone for even greater influence on the continent.
Mohamed MOUNADI
