There’s reason for cautious optimism about Morocco’s economic trajectory. According to the latest World Bank forecast unveiled Wednesday in Rabat, the country’s growth is expected to reach 3.6% in 2025 before easing slightly to 3.5% in 2026. These figures, while not groundbreaking, are considered “relatively robust” by Javier Diaz Cassou, the World Bank’s lead economist in Morocco. They signal a return to the pre-pandemic growth range—stable, if not spectacular.
The projections were shared during a roundtable discussion focused on the World Bank’s new Morocco Economic Monitor. The report comes at a time of persistent global uncertainty and a still-fragile post-COVID recovery, both of which continue to shape Morocco’s economic outlook.
One of the key drivers of growth is a rebound in agriculture, buoyed by improved weather conditions compared to the drought-hit 2024 season. Agricultural GDP is projected to grow and stabilize at around 2.6% in the medium term, helping support the broader economy.
In contrast, non-agricultural GDP—the structural engine of Morocco’s economy—is expected to lose a bit of steam in 2025. But this slight slowdown is largely attributed to a “base effect,” following a strong rebound in several sectors in 2024. The underlying fundamentals remain intact; growth will just be proceeding at a more measured pace.
On the inflation front, the World Bank’s outlook is reassuring. Even during Ramadan, when food prices typically spike, inflation is expected to stay under control. Surveys by Morocco’s central bank, Bank Al-Maghrib, show that price expectations are stabilizing, with core inflation holding steady.
The current account deficit may widen slightly due to increased domestic consumption, but not beyond historical norms. Meanwhile, the budget deficit continues its downward path toward pre-pandemic levels—a trend the World Bank views as a sign of fiscal discipline.
Another highlight is the expanding role of the public sector in driving national development, in line with Morocco’s New Development Model. This growing state presence is seen as a potential catalyst for structural transformation—though the report stresses the need for more agile governance and improved public sector efficiency to make it work.
Public debt, for its part, is expected to level off between 67% and 68% of GDP—a range considered sustainable in the current economic climate.
Still, beneath these broadly positive indicators lies a deeper concern: the labor market. Despite 162,000 jobs created in urban areas last year, it’s nowhere near enough to keep up with population growth. Over the past decade, Morocco’s working-age population has risen by over 10%, while job creation has barely topped 1.5%. That disconnect is fueling public frustration, especially in the wake of recent inflation shocks that have squeezed household purchasing power.
To address this, the World Bank is urging Morocco to fast-track key reforms. Improving the business environment, cutting red tape, boosting competitiveness, and building a more inclusive labor market are all critical steps the country must take to unlock its economic potential.
In the end, the message is clear: Morocco has a strong foundation, but to truly thrive, it needs to modernize and reform. “With strategic reforms and a strong commitment to modernization, Morocco holds considerable potential,” concludes Diaz Cassou.
