Aradei Capital shares could rise by 20%, according to brokerage firm M.S.IN, which has given the stock a buy rating and set a target price of MAD 514 per share. The recommendation is based on new property projects, steady rental income and plans to grow new businesses outside property leasing.
Rental income will remain the company’s biggest source of revenue. M.S.IN expects it to make up 94% of total revenue in 2026, while the remaining 6% will come from businesses such as leisure and retail media.
Aradei Capital opened Sela Park Casablanca in 2025, adding 30,000 square metres of Gross Leasable Area (GLA). M.S.IN expects rental income from the shopping centre to grow as more tenants open their stores and visitor numbers increase.
The company is also building a mixed-use project at the southern entrance of Casablanca. The project will add another 60,000 square metres of GLA when it is completed in 2028. M.S.IN sees both developments as the main drivers of growth between 2026 and 2030.
Aradei Capital is also expanding beyond traditional property leasing.
The company has opened its first Family Entertainment Centre under the WAW brand at Sela Park Casablanca. The aim is to attract more visitors and encourage shoppers to spend more time at its malls.
The company also launched Elevate, a retail media agency that sells advertising space and uses shopper data inside its shopping centres to create marketing campaigns for tenants and outside brands.
Renovation work is continuing at Almazar in Marrakech and Borj Fez in Fez to improve the shopping centres and attract more visitors.
Revenue and profit expected to rise
M.S.IN expects Aradei Capital’s revenue to grow by an average of 7% a year between 2026 and 2030. Net profit is forecast to increase at the same pace.
Funds From Operations (FFO), the main measure of cash generated by property companies, is expected to grow faster at an average of 10% a year. FFO excludes non-cash accounting costs such as depreciation, giving a clearer picture of operating performance.
The stronger FFO growth is expected to come from new properties becoming fully operational, higher rents and growing income from leisure and retail media.
The forecasts assume occupancy stays close to 96%, helping the company keep stable rental income while filling new developments.
Regular rent increases and the completion of the Casablanca mixed-use project in 2028 are also expected to support revenue growth.
Leisure and retail media will increase non-rental income over time, but rental income will continue to be the company’s main source of revenue.
MAD 3.3 billion investment plan
Aradei Capital plans to invest MAD 3.3 billion by 2030 to complete projects under construction, renovate existing properties and develop new ones.
The company has already secured MAD 1.8 billion of that funding, reducing the risk of delays to the first phase of the investment plan.
M.S.IN expects the spending programme to expand the company’s property portfolio and strengthen its recurring rental cash flow.
Dividend payments expected to increase
Dividend payments remain one of the stock’s biggest attractions.
Aradei Capital paid annual dividends of between MAD 18.2 and MAD 23 per share between 2021 and 2025. That represents annual growth of 6%.
The company also recorded an average payout ratio of 79% and an average dividend yield of 5% during the period.
M.S.IN expects average annual dividends to reach MAD 27 per share between 2026 and 2030, with annual growth of 5.8%.
Buy rating backed by stable cash flow
M.S.IN says Aradei Capital has a business model similar to a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), or an OPCI in Morocco. Most of its income comes from rent paid by retail tenants, giving the company predictable cash flow and supporting regular dividend payments.
The brokerage says the target price of MAD 514 depends on three key factors: completing projects on time, keeping occupancy close to 96% and successfully carrying out the remaining investment programme.
Sela Park Casablanca, the Casablanca mixed-use project due in 2028 and the expansion of leisure and retail media are expected to support future growth while keeping rental income at the centre of the business.
