Just hours before Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) holds its first policy meeting of 2025, analysts and market observers are nearly unanimous in their predictions: Morocco’s central bank is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.5%. After lowering the rate by 25 basis points during its last meeting in 2024, BAM appears to be favoring a cautious approach, supported by controlled inflation and a stable economic environment.
Recent data from the High Commission for Planning (HCP) confirms that inflation remains moderate. In January 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2% year-over-year, driven by a 3.3% increase in food prices and a 1.1% rise in non-food items. This trend aligns with BAM’s objective of price stability.
At the same time, credit growth in the non-financial sector has gained momentum, rising by 3.3% in January compared to 2.6% in December 2024. Loans to private businesses increased by 1.2% after a previous growth of 0.6%, while credit to state-owned enterprises surged by 8.6%. Household lending also saw a slight uptick, reaching 2%.
Another factor helping to ease inflationary pressure is the improved outlook for the agricultural sector. Recent rainfall has boosted expectations for a stronger harvest, which could lead to a more abundant supply of agricultural goods, helping to stabilize prices.
Attijari Global Research (AGR) echoes this consensus, noting that 94% of Moroccan investors anticipate no change in monetary policy, while just 6% expect another 25-basis-point rate cut. No market participants foresee a rate hike.
For BAM, caution remains the guiding principle. Given ongoing global uncertainties, frequent adjustments to the key interest rate could disrupt market expectations. By maintaining stability, the central bank provides economic actors with greater predictability.
However, could the central bank defy expectations with an unexpected move? The answer will soon be revealed.
