The latest weekly review from BMCE Capital Global Research paints a picture of continued caution in Morocco’s bond markets. Investors remain on the sidelines, watching a market shaped by deepening liquidity tensions in the banking system and a Treasury that’s choosing restraint over aggressive fundraising. Both primary and secondary market yields continue to inch downward, maintaining a slow but steady decline.
In response to the worsening liquidity shortfall, the central bank increased its weekly interventions significantly, injecting 52.4 billion dirhams through seven-day advances—up from 48.9 billion the previous week. This move was critical as the average banking liquidity deficit widened by 4.28%, reaching a substantial -176.4 billion dirhams. Meanwhile, Treasury deposits, typically used to absorb excess liquidity, dipped to a daily average of 46.5 billion dirhams, compared to 52.2 billion previously.
On the primary market, the Treasury adopted a visibly cautious stance. Just 12% of the proposed issuance was taken up—amounting to 500 million dirhams, concentrated on the two-year line at a cap rate of 2.3555%. This targeted operation led to a marginal dip of 0.9 basis points in the primary rate, signaling the government’s clear intent to avoid adding upward pressure on the yield curve.
Secondary market trends echoed this moderation, with rates falling more sharply on shorter and mid-term maturities. Two-year yields dropped by 4.37 basis points, five-year rates slipped by 2 points, and the 52-week line declined by 1.84 points. This easing reflects the Treasury’s relatively comfortable position in the short term, buoyed by recent tax revenues from corporate prepayments and a fresh international bond issuance.
Interbank lending rates remain broadly stable. The weighted average interbank rate held steady at 2.25%, while the MONIA (Moroccan Overnight Index Average) edged slightly lower to 2.225%. These figures suggest short-term borrowing costs are under control despite persistent pressure on liquidity reserves.
In the private debt space, a few notable moves surfaced. Crédit Agricole du Maroc issued a six-month certificate of deposit at 2.42%. BMCI followed with a one-year issue at 2.50%, while CFG Bank priced a similar one-year paper at 2.63%. The spread between these issuances underscores the market’s pricing of relative credit risk.
Looking ahead, the current downward trend in rates is expected to continue. With no major debt repayments due before summer and the Treasury’s reliance on a mix of funding sources, its current positioning appears solid. However, the liquidity crunch in the banking system remains a key concern and could influence market behavior in the coming weeks.
